Coronavirus Epidemic of a self-healing Disease
Our ministry of Health formulated the following working hypothesis: COVID-19 is the disease caused by the new coronavirus that emerged in China in December 2019. The new coronavirus can be spread from person to person. It is diagnosed with a laboratory test There is no coronavirus vaccine yet. Our ministry of Health adopted the SIR model.
SIR model ignores Herd Imunity. It applies R0 reproduction number. In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R0, of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.
Soon will coronavirus epidemic disappear It will disappear by itself . Without medical therapy or vaccination. Since in 97% infected it is a self-healing disease. The rest 3% need help. Our ministry of health mistakenly adopted the SIR model which triggered the chaos in Israel At best SIR model may describe a caricature of an epidemic. Yet our ministry of Health regards it as predictive.