Bookmark! (press Ctrl+D)

UK
Cases, (App) + 2,605

COVID symptoms in the UK, 29, 022

Daily cases

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

UK lockdown date, 23rd March

Now

Cases, + 3,000

Tests, + 170,000

Peak

Cases, + 4, 845

Tests, + 65,000

Rebecca Hanson
Andrew Bayliff

Unknowns from first peak

Mostly only testing people in hospital

Antibodies only last about 10 weeks

Significant surveys not done in time

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/201833/cell-immunity-what-does-help-protect/

T cell tests would be good

App Data (Zoe, King’s College, Tim)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

1st April, Prevalence

Over 2, 100 000 cases

Assume symptoms last for 10 days

1st April , Incidence

Cases, + 200, 000,

+ 20% for asymptomatics = Cases, + 240, 000

+ more symptoms now recognised

Deaths peak

ONS, Deaths peaked w/e 19th April (week 16)

UK, 9, 495 for the week

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest#main-points

= 1, 351 deaths per day

So peak CFR
Cases = 4,845
Deaths = 1,351
CFR = 27 %

Peak IFR
Cases, 240,000
Deaths, 1,351
IFR = 0.56%

Estimating the infection fatality ratio in England, (21 August, CEBM)

https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/estimating-the-infection-fatality-ratio-in-england/

IFR falling over time

ONS, IFR, as of 4 August, 0.49%

MRC, IFR, as of 28 July, 0.30%

Without lockdown

Exponential growth up to 40, 000, 000 infections

Less deaths in younger people

More deaths due to overwhelmed NHS

5% of 40, 000, 000 = 2 million

source

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here