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The latest COVID-19 trends over the last 10 days are worrying. Not only at the all-India level, but 10 of the 20 bigger states in India are showing signs of a second surge. The graphs here show in a simple form the clear upward trend in daily new cases, the rising positivity rate (which is particularly worrying in the context of the increasing number of Rapid Antigen Tests being conducted. Antigen tests have a high false-negativity), and the worrying resurgence of the increase in R (the Reproduction Rate, which measures how infectious the virus is still). There were some hopeful signs a fortnight ago with the “R” gradually coming down and the positivity rate falling too. Unfortunately, those encouraging signs did not last long and we may be seeing the early stages of a second wave. It is, of course, too soon to be sure that this worrying trend will continue – but it is important not to just sit back and hope things will improve – it is crucial that the authorities act decisively and act now.

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